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In-depth analysis

May 20, 2025

Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast estimates the 2025 hurricane season will exceed the 1991–2020 average, with an estimate of 17 named storms, compared with a historical average of 14 storms. Meteorologists expect 13–18 named storms, including 3–6 storms with direct impacts on the United States, during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, according to reports from AccuWeather in April.

The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil industry, including potential refinery outages along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Last year, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States, shutting in some upstream crude oil and natural gas production temporarily and disrupting petroleum product supply chains in Florida.

What is hurricane season?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center defines the

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In-brief analysis

May 19, 2025

We expect U.S. hydropower generation will increase by 7.5% in 2025 but will remain 2.4% below the 10-year average in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Hydropower generation in 2024 fell to 241 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), the lowest since at least 2010; in 2025, we expect generation will be 259.1 BkWh. This amount of generation would represent 6% of the electricity generation in the country.

About half of the hydropower generating capacity in the country is in the western states of Washington, Oregon, and California, so we closely monitor precipitation patterns in this region to inform our hydropower outlook.

Precipitation conditions have been mixed across the western United States since October. According to the WestWide Drought Tracker, more precipitation than normal has fallen in northern California, Oregon, and the eastern half

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In-brief analysis

May 15, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), May 2025, and Oxford Economics
Note: Excludes 2020 and 2021 as outlier years because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We forecast consumption growth of crude oil and other liquid fuels will slow over the next two years, driven by a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in Asia, in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The world economy, measured by GDP, increases 2.8% in 2025 and 2026 in our forecast. Excluding the years of global economic contraction in 2020 and 2009, these economic growth rates would be the lowest since 2008. Considerable uncertainty over world trade, manufacturing, and investment points to downside risk in economic growth, which has a direct effect on oil consumption.

Economic activity uses energy. Increases in population,

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In-depth analysis

May 14, 2025

Retail electricity prices have increased faster than the rate of inflation since 2022, and we expect them to continue increasing through 2026, based on forecasts in our Short-Term Energy Outlook. Parts of the country with relatively high electricity prices may experience greater price increases than those with relatively low electricity prices.

Overall, U.S. energy prices rapidly increased from 2020 to 2022 as economic activity recovered after the worst of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine interrupted energy supply chains. Since 2022, nominal prices for many fuels have declined, particularly for those such as gasoline and heating oil that are tied more closely to crude oil prices, which are affected by international markets. Electricity prices, though, have continued a steady increase.

Regions with already high electricity prices may see larger increases

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