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In-brief analysis

July 11, 2025

In our Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025), we project U.S. production growth of crude oil and natural gas remains relatively high through 2030 due to increasing U.S. exports of petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG), as U.S. energy exports continue to be economical for international consumers.

AEO2025, which we released in April, only considers market and policy inputs as of December 2024 in most cases. Legislation, regulations, executive actions, and court rulings after that date are not considered in this analysis.

Crude oil
Crude oil production increases to about 14.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2027 or 2028 in most of our cases, compared with 13.2 million b/d in 2024. Near-term growth in our projections is largely due to increased production in the Permian Basin. The long-term projections differ somewhat

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

July 9, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Capacity Report and Petroleum Supply Monthly
Note: Refinery Capacity Report data are reported as of January 1 of each year, so changes in capacity that take place during a given year are represented in the newly reported total capacity number for the start of the following year.

California is set to lose 17% of its oil refinery capacity over the next 12 months because of two planned refinery closures. If realized, the closure of the facilities is likely to contribute to increases in fuel price volatility on the West Coast.

Phillips 66 announced plans last October to close its 139,000-barrel-per-day (b/d) Wilmington refinery in the Los Angeles area later this year. Valero submitted a notice in April to end refining operations at its 145,000-b/d

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In-brief analysis

July 7, 2025

In 2024, the United States imported about 17% of its domestic energy supply, half of the record share set in 2006 and the lowest share since 1985, according to our Monthly Energy Review. The decline in imports’ share of supply in the previous two decades is attributable to both an increase in domestic energy production and a decrease in energy imports since 2006.

U.S. energy supply comes from three sources: domestic energy production, energy imports from other countries, and any energy brought out of storage.

In 2024, for the third consecutive year, the United States remained a net exporter of energy, producing a record amount that continues to exceed consumption. Individually, U.S. natural gas, crude oil, natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs), biofuels, solar, and wind each set domestic production records in

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In-brief analysis

July 2, 2025

In 2024, the United States consumed about 94 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of energy, a 1% increase from 2023, according to our Monthly Energy Review. Fossil fuels—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—accounted for 82% of total U.S. energy consumption in 2024. Nonfossil fuel energy—from renewables and nuclear energy—accounted for the other 18%. Petroleum remained the most-consumed fuel in the United States, as it has been for the past 75 years, and nuclear energy consumption exceeded coal consumption for the first time ever.

When the Declaration of Independence was signed in 1776, wood, a renewable energy source, was the largest source of energy in the United States. Used for heating, cooking, and lighting, wood remained the largest U.S. energy source until the late 1800s, when coal consumption became more common. Wood energy is

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