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In-depth analysis

May 20, 2025

Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast estimates the 2025 hurricane season will exceed the 1991–2020 average, with an estimate of 17 named storms, compared with a historical average of 14 storms. Meteorologists expect 13–18 named storms, including 3–6 storms with direct impacts on the United States, during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, according to reports from AccuWeather in April.

The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil industry, including potential refinery outages along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Last year, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States, shutting in some upstream crude oil and natural gas production temporarily and disrupting petroleum product supply chains in Florida.

What is hurricane season?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center defines the

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In-brief analysis

May 19, 2025

We expect U.S. hydropower generation will increase by 7.5% in 2025 but will remain 2.4% below the 10-year average in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Hydropower generation in 2024 fell to 241 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), the lowest since at least 2010; in 2025, we expect generation will be 259.1 BkWh. This amount of generation would represent 6% of the electricity generation in the country.

About half of the hydropower generating capacity in the country is in the western states of Washington, Oregon, and California, so we closely monitor precipitation patterns in this region to inform our hydropower outlook.

Precipitation conditions have been mixed across the western United States since October. According to the WestWide Drought Tracker, more precipitation than normal has fallen in northern California, Oregon, and the eastern half

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Synopsis

The National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) of the National Science Foundation (NSF) is one of the thirteen principal federal statistical agencies within the United States.  It is responsible for the collection, acquisition, analysis, reporting and dissemination of objective, statistical data related to the science and technology (S&T) enterprise in the United States and other nations that is relevant and useful to practitioners, researchers, policymakers and the public. NCSES uses this information to prepare a number of statistical data reports including Women, Minorities and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering and the National Science Board’s biennial report, Science and Engineering (S&E) Indicators.

The Center would like to enhance its efforts to support analytic and methodological research in support of its surveys as well as promote the education and training of researchers in the use of large-scale nationally representative datasets. NCSES

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