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In-depth analysis

May 20, 2025

Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast estimates the 2025 hurricane season will exceed the 1991–2020 average, with an estimate of 17 named storms, compared with a historical average of 14 storms. Meteorologists expect 13–18 named storms, including 3–6 storms with direct impacts on the United States, during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, according to reports from AccuWeather in April.

The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil industry, including potential refinery outages along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Last year, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States, shutting in some upstream crude oil and natural gas production temporarily and disrupting petroleum product supply chains in Florida.

What is hurricane season?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center defines the

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Synopsis

The National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) of the National Science Foundation (NSF) is one of the thirteen principal federal statistical agencies within the United States.  It is responsible for the collection, acquisition, analysis, reporting and dissemination of objective, statistical data related to the science and technology (S&T) enterprise in the United States and other nations that is relevant and useful to practitioners, researchers, policymakers and the public. NCSES uses this information to prepare a number of statistical data reports including Women, Minorities and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering and the National Science Board’s biennial report, Science and Engineering (S&E) Indicators.

The Center would like to enhance its efforts to support analytic and methodological research in support of its surveys as well as promote the education and training of researchers in the use of large-scale nationally representative datasets. NCSES

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In-brief analysis

May 15, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), May 2025, and Oxford Economics
Note: Excludes 2020 and 2021 as outlier years because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We forecast consumption growth of crude oil and other liquid fuels will slow over the next two years, driven by a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in Asia, in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The world economy, measured by GDP, increases 2.8% in 2025 and 2026 in our forecast. Excluding the years of global economic contraction in 2020 and 2009, these economic growth rates would be the lowest since 2008. Considerable uncertainty over world trade, manufacturing, and investment points to downside risk in economic growth, which has a direct effect on oil consumption.

Economic activity uses energy. Increases in population,

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