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In-brief analysis

May 19, 2025

We expect U.S. hydropower generation will increase by 7.5% in 2025 but will remain 2.4% below the 10-year average in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Hydropower generation in 2024 fell to 241 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), the lowest since at least 2010; in 2025, we expect generation will be 259.1 BkWh. This amount of generation would represent 6% of the electricity generation in the country.

About half of the hydropower generating capacity in the country is in the western states of Washington, Oregon, and California, so we closely monitor precipitation patterns in this region to inform our hydropower outlook.

Precipitation conditions have been mixed across the western United States since October. According to the WestWide Drought Tracker, more precipitation than normal has fallen in northern California, Oregon, and the eastern half

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Synopsis

The National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) of the National Science Foundation (NSF) is one of the thirteen principal federal statistical agencies within the United States.  It is responsible for the collection, acquisition, analysis, reporting and dissemination of objective, statistical data related to the science and technology (S&T) enterprise in the United States and other nations that is relevant and useful to practitioners, researchers, policymakers and the public. NCSES uses this information to prepare a number of statistical data reports including Women, Minorities and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering and the National Science Board’s biennial report, Science and Engineering (S&E) Indicators.

The Center would like to enhance its efforts to support analytic and methodological research in support of its surveys as well as promote the education and training of researchers in the use of large-scale nationally representative datasets. NCSES

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In-brief analysis

May 15, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), May 2025, and Oxford Economics
Note: Excludes 2020 and 2021 as outlier years because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We forecast consumption growth of crude oil and other liquid fuels will slow over the next two years, driven by a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in Asia, in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The world economy, measured by GDP, increases 2.8% in 2025 and 2026 in our forecast. Excluding the years of global economic contraction in 2020 and 2009, these economic growth rates would be the lowest since 2008. Considerable uncertainty over world trade, manufacturing, and investment points to downside risk in economic growth, which has a direct effect on oil consumption.

Economic activity uses energy. Increases in population,

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