RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-depth analysis

January 21, 2025

We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia’s oil exports to the global market.

We forecast prices will fall to an average of $66/b in 2026 mainly because of growing production in countries outside OPEC+ and demand growth that is less than the pre-pandemic average. These factors reduce forecast oil prices because production outpaces consumption,

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

January 17, 2025

Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.

Monthly crude oil prices in 2024 remained between $70/b and $90/b. Sluggish demand and relatively high supply outside of the OPEC+ countries contributed to the relatively narrow trading range for crude oil despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions in

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In-brief analysis

January 16, 2025

Data source: S&P Capital IQ

Average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states were lower in 2024 than in 2023. In addition, prices were much less volatile than they have been over the last few years. Lower and more stable electricity prices in 2024 were mostly driven by low natural gas prices, as well as increases in generation for some lower cost renewable energy sources and new battery storage capacity.

Prices were highest in January, as a result of lower-than-usual temperatures in most of the Lower 48 states, especially in the Northwest. Cold weather increased natural gas consumption and prices, which increased prices for natural gas-fired electricity. After January, natural gas prices traded significantly lower on average during the rest of the year. Benchmark Henry

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

January 15, 2025

In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through December 2026, we forecast five key energy trends that we expect will help shape markets over the next two years.

Electricity consumption will start growing, driven by new demand sources
After almost two decades of relatively little change, electricity consumption grew by 2% in 2024, and we forecast it will continue growing by 2% in both 2025 and 2026, mostly as a result of demand from new semiconductor and battery manufacturing factories and from data centers.

Solar power will supply most of the increase in electricity consumption

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2025
Note: Battery storage net generation is close to zero, reflecting the net effect of charging and discharging.

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