RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

December 12, 2025

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025. This forecast decline in production follows four years of rising crude oil output. Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025, mostly because of increased output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. In 2026, we forecast modest production increases in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of America, and the Permian will be offset by declines in other parts of the United States. We forecast that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2025 and $51/b in 2026, both lower than the 2024 average of $77/b.

Principal contributor:

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In-brief analysis

December 10, 2025

Data source: U.S. Department of the Interior’s 2025 list of critical minerals; U.S. Department of Energy’s 2023 list of critical materials and a recently proposed addition
Note: This Today in Energy article launches the Energy Minerals Observatory, a new project of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 2026, as part of the Observatory and the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), EIA plans to conduct field studies of three minerals: graphite, vanadium, and zirconium.

Critical minerals, such as copper, cobalt, and silicon, are vital for energy technologies, but most critical minerals markets are less transparent than mature energy markets, such as crude oil or coal. Like other energy markets, many supply-side and demand-side factors influence pricing for these energy-relevant critical minerals, but critical minerals supply chains contain numerous data gaps.

The lack

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In-brief analysis

December 8, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Data note: The specifics of the calculation methodology are detailed in a previous article with minor adjustments to heat rates used. The heat rate used for the dark spread was 10,500 British thermal units per kilowatthour (Btu/kWh), while the heat rate for the spark spread was 7,000 Btu/kWh.

Higher average daily wholesale electricity prices between January and November 2025 may be improving the operational competitiveness of some natural gas- and coal-fired generators in the PJM Interconnection compared with the same period in 2024. PJM is the largest wholesale electricity market in the United States. The spark and dark spreads, common metrics for estimating the profitability of natural gas- and coal-fired electric generators, have both increased over the past

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In-brief analysis

December 5, 2025

On December 1, 2025, the U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline fell below $3.00 per gallon (gal) to $2.98/gal, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. When adjusted for inflation, the December 1 price is the lowest average U.S. gasoline price since February 2021. The falling price of crude oil, which typically accounts for about half of the retail gasoline price, has led to a drop in the price consumers pay for gasoline. Gasoline prices vary by region. On December 1, regular gasoline prices ranged between a low price of $2.55/gal on the U.S. Gulf Coast and a high price of $4.03/gal on the U.S. West Coast.

Principal contributor: Kimberly Peterson

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