RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

January 24, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2025
Note: Capacity values represent the amount of generating capacity at utility-scale power plants (greater than 1 megawatt). Other renewables include geothermal, waste biomass, wood biomass, and pumped storage hydropower.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect that U.S. renewable capacity additions—especially solar—will continue to drive the growth of U.S. power generation over the next two years. We expect U.S. utilities and independent power producers will add 26 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity to the U.S. electric power sector in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026. Last year, the electric power sector added a record 37 GW of solar power capacity to the electric power sector, almost double 2023 solar capacity additions. We forecast wind capacity additions will increase

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-depth analysis

January 23, 2025

We expect increases in the Henry Hub natural gas price in 2025 and 2026 as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply, driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase in 2025 to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and in 2026 to average $4.00/MMBtu from the record low set in 2024.

In 2025, we expect increases in demand, which includes domestic natural gas consumption and exports, will exceed increases in supply, which includes domestic natural gas production and imports. Consumption and exports increase by almost 3%, or 3.2 billion cubic feet

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

January 22, 2025

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook, we now forecast U.S. retail gasoline prices through the end of 2026. We estimate U.S. average gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by 11 cents per gallon (gal), or about 3%, compared with 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of about 18 cents/gal, or an additional 6%. The lower U.S. gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy. Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity over the forecast period may offset some of the downward pressure of lower crude oil prices on gasoline prices.

Our forecast for decreasing U.S. retail gasoline prices over the next two years follows the decrease from 2023 to 2024, after retail prices surged in 2022.

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-depth analysis

January 21, 2025

We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia’s oil exports to the global market.

We forecast prices will fall to an average of $66/b in 2026 mainly because of growing production in countries outside OPEC+ and demand growth that is less than the pre-pandemic average. These factors reduce forecast oil prices because production outpaces consumption,

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