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In-brief analysis

December 15, 2025

Our estimates for residential energy expenditures this winter (November 2025 through March 2026) have increased since the publication of our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts in mid-October. We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane.

Each October, we publish a Winter Fuels Outlook with forecasts for energy consumption, prices, and expenditures for U.S. households. We categorize homes based on their main heating fuel: natural gas, electricity, propane, or heating oil. Almost all U.S. homes use one of these four fuels as their main heating source.

In each month from November through March, we update these forecasts based on actual weather and prices and the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts for future weather and prices. As the winter

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