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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-depth analysis

January 21, 2025

We forecast benchmark Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of $81 per barrel (b) in 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026, as strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices and help offset heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restraint from OPEC+ members. This forecast was completed before the United States issued additional sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector on January 10, which have the potential to reduce Russia’s oil exports to the global market.

We forecast prices will fall to an average of $66/b in 2026 mainly because of growing production in countries outside OPEC+ and demand growth that is less than the pre-pandemic average. These factors reduce forecast oil prices because production outpaces consumption,

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