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In-brief analysis

July 31, 2025

In our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast nationwide U.S. retail electricity sales to ultimate customers will grow at an annual rate of 2.2% in both 2025 and 2026, compared with average growth of 0.8% between 2020 and 2024. The forecast reflects rapid electricity demand growth in Texas and several mid-Atlantic states, where the grid is managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the PJM Interconnection, respectively. We expect electricity demand in ERCOT to grow at an average rate of 11% in 2025 and 2026 while the PJM region grows by 4%.

After relatively little change in U.S. electricity demand between 2005 and 2020, retail sales of electricity have begun growing again, driven by rising demand in the commercial and industrial sectors. Developers have proposed numerous data

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In-brief analysis

July 30, 2025

This TIE was updated on August 4 to clarify language.

Data source: Standard International Trade Classification data published by the U.S. Census Bureau
Note: Prices are adjusted for inflation.

The value of energy trade between the United States and Canada remained steady in 2024 at an estimated $151 billion compared with $154 billion in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Energy trade value is the total value of energy imports and exports between two countries and is driven by commodity volumes and prices. Most of the U.S.-Canada trade value is U.S. energy imports from Canada—$124 billion in 2024—rather than from U.S. energy exports to Canada, which totaled $27 billion last year.

The volume of crude oil and natural gas traded between the two countries increased in

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In-depth analysis

July 29, 2025

In our Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025), we project regional differences in natural gas markets will encourage increased natural gas flows from the mid-Atlantic to the southern Gulf Coast in the coming decades. Across the cases we explored, we project production from the Appalachian Basin in the mid-Atlantic and Ohio region will increasingly meet growing demand on the Gulf Coast in the South Central region, driven largely by increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The economics of increased production in the Appalachian Basin are more favorable by 2030, and our model shows natural gas transiting through the Eastern Midwest region on the way to the Gulf Coast.

We froze assumptions for AEO2025 in December 2024, and we did not include market changes, recently passed legislation, regulations, executive actions, or court rulings after

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In-brief analysis

July 28, 2025

Crude oil production from onshore federal lands has increased in recent years as a result of significant growth in drilling activity and operations. According to data collected by the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Office of Natural Resources Revenue, onshore crude oil production from federal lands reached 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, a record high. Most of this growth was in New Mexico from crude oil produced from federal lands in the Permian Basin.

Increases in crude oil production from federal lands in New Mexico are attributable to multiyear increases in the number of leases, drilling permits approvals, and well bore starts. Based on Bureau of Land Management data for fiscal years 2020 through 2023, activity in New Mexico accounted for the majority of drilling permits approved and well

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