RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

December 19, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
Data values: Total Crude Oil Production
Note: While EIA does not forecast unplanned production outages, they are assumed to remain at the most recent historical month’s level throughout the forecast period.

Each month we publish estimates of key global oil market indicators that affect crude oil prices and movements in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Among the most important indicators for global crude oil markets are estimates of OPEC’s effective crude oil production capacity and surplus production capacity, as well as any disruptions to liquid fuels production. Low surplus production capacity among OPEC countries can put upward pressure on crude oil prices in the event of unplanned supply disruptions or strong growth in global oil demand.

In our December STEO, we updated our

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

December 17, 2025

We forecast that global crude oil production will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast in our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global crude oil production growth since 2023 has been driven by countries outside of OPEC+.

In 2024, non-OPEC+ production increased by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d); however, coordinated production cuts by OPEC+ producers offset production increases by countries outside the group, and global crude oil production fell by 0.2 million b/d. Global crude oil production rebounded in 2025, growing by an estimated 2.2 million b/d overall, with 1.7 million b/d of growth from non-OPEC+ countries. In our December STEO, we forecast that crude oil production growth from Brazil,

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

December 15, 2025

Our estimates for residential energy expenditures this winter (November 2025 through March 2026) have increased since the publication of our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts in mid-October. We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane.

Each October, we publish a Winter Fuels Outlook with forecasts for energy consumption, prices, and expenditures for U.S. households. We categorize homes based on their main heating fuel: natural gas, electricity, propane, or heating oil. Almost all U.S. homes use one of these four fuels as their main heating source.

In each month from November through March, we update these forecasts based on actual weather and prices and the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts for future weather and prices. As the winter

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RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

December 12, 2025

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025. This forecast decline in production follows four years of rising crude oil output. Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025, mostly because of increased output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. In 2026, we forecast modest production increases in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of America, and the Permian will be offset by declines in other parts of the United States. We forecast that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2025 and $51/b in 2026, both lower than the 2024 average of $77/b.

Principal contributor:

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