RSS feed source: US Energy Information Administration
In-brief analysis
December 17, 2025
We forecast that global crude oil production will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast in our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global crude oil production growth since 2023 has been driven by countries outside of OPEC+.
In 2024, non-OPEC+ production increased by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d); however, coordinated production cuts by OPEC+ producers offset production increases by countries outside the group, and global crude oil production fell by 0.2 million b/d. Global crude oil production rebounded in 2025, growing by an estimated 2.2 million b/d overall, with 1.7 million b/d of growth from non-OPEC+ countries. In our December STEO, we forecast that crude oil production growth from Brazil,
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