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In-brief analysis

September 10, 2026

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
Note: 1H2026=first half of 2026

We forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 13.7 million b/d set in 2025, in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

In the first half of 2026 (1H26), crude oil production averaged 13.7 million b/d, 2% (0.3 million b/d) more than the same period in 2025. Most of this expansion is concentrated in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico and the Federal Gulf of America.

Permian. We forecast Permian oil production will average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, 3% more than in 2025. Production growth in the Permian region is driven by higher crude

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