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In-brief analysis

December 17, 2025

We forecast that global crude oil production will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast in our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global crude oil production growth since 2023 has been driven by countries outside of OPEC+.

In 2024, non-OPEC+ production increased by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d); however, coordinated production cuts by OPEC+ producers offset production increases by countries outside the group, and global crude oil production fell by 0.2 million b/d. Global crude oil production rebounded in 2025, growing by an estimated 2.2 million b/d overall, with 1.7 million b/d of growth from non-OPEC+ countries. In our December STEO, we forecast that crude oil production growth from Brazil,

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U.S. National Science Foundation

Directorate for Computer and Information Science and Engineering
     Division of Information and Intelligent Systems
     Division of Computer and Network Systems
     Division of Computing and Communication Foundations

Directorate for Engineering
     Division of Civil, Mechanical and Manufacturing Innovation

Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences
     Division of Mathematical Sciences

Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
     Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences

National Institutes of Health

    Office of Data Science Strategy

    Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research

    National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health

    National Cancer Institute

    National Eye Institute

    National Institute on Aging

    National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

    National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Disease

    National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering

    Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development

    National Institute on Drug Abuse

    National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders

    National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research

    National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases

    National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

    National Institute of Mental Health

    National Institute

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Civil Engineer (0480U), Facilities Services – 81815

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